Will The Oil from The Gulf Really Reach South Florida Waters?

With the threat of the BP Oil Spill looming dangerously close to the shores of the entire Gulf region, the media has again taken the opportunity to sensationalize the news. Instead of focusing on reporting news in a way that informs, the recent headlines have included "Oil from Gulf likely to reach South Florida waters, study says." Just another example of how the focus on headlines has become more important than the actual story.

If you read the subheading of this article, you learn that the "computer modeling shows [a]61 to 80 percent chance [that] tar balls will come within 20 miles of southeast Florida coast." An even further read informs us that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) study produced 500 different models based on wind, currents and location of the oil. It goes on to say that the Gulf Coast of Florida, from Tampa to the Panhandle, has a 1 to 20% chance of tar balls coming within 20 miles of their shores. This is a stark contrast to a June 22 news article in which an NOAA director related that the Oil from the BP blowout was not likely to reach the Florida Keys or South Florida. (http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2010-06-22/news/fl-florida-keys-oil-20100622_1_sector-key-west-spill-florida-keys)

Why the contradiction? So called "Experts" cite the change in currents. The truth is that no one knows. Why? Because there are too many factors. The BP Oil Spill is not a hurricane (although the forecasting of the oil path has repeatedly been compared to that of a hurricane) that meteorologists have been tracking and learning about for decades. It is an oil spill, the likes of which we have never seen before and certainly have no experience or expertise in predicting. There are just too many variables to accurately predict the path of destruction the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill will take. Let's just examine a few.

First, the wind and weather currents. Those who have lived in South Florida and the Gulf Coast region for any length of time know all too well the weather patterns in the summertime and throughout the Hurricane Season. It is simply just too difficult to predict anything. Just look at some of the more recent devastating Hurricanes in this region. Hurricane Andrew, Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Katrina, just to name a few. If you follow the path of those hurricanes, and many of the others that have made landfall, it is easy to see the point. There is no easily predictable path for a hurricane, even when it is bearing down on land. So how can we predict the path of a major oil spill when we have no prior history tracking oil spills?

Next, do we know how long the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill will actually keep pumping oil uncontrollably into the Gulf of Mexico? The answer so far is NO. This is because neither BP nor our own government can answer that question. Certainly, if we cannot control the flow of oil into the Gulf for the next 9 to 12 months, or even more, there is going to potentially be enough oil for everyone to get their shores contaminated. Not just South Florida, but the entire Gulf Coast and even the eastern seaboard. Prognosticators could even predict that there may even be enough oil to litter the shores of Europe if we cannot stop the flow.

Finally, do we actually know how much oil has been dispersed beneath the surface? Has the oil sunk half way down? Has it made it all the way to the bottom? The chemical dispersants purportedly being used, Corexit 9500, is a highly powerful and toxic (nearly 4 times more toxic than oil) dispersant used to breakdown the oil. The result is that in the breakdown, oil is being dispersed to different levels of the Gulf, creating the blobs of oil you are hearing about under the surface. It is great to talk about the wind and current patterns that will drive the oil on the surface, but what about the currents on the bottom of the Gulf? Certainly, experts can agree that the currents on the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico are different than that those on the top. We have has heard about the reported findings of 6-mile long or longer by 1-mile or more wide blobs of oil floating under the surface. Something of that size or larger is certainly nothing to ignore. And when, and if, these oil blobs make shore, wherever that may be, it is going to be a catastrophic event.